Tuesday, May 29, 2007

1103 PM

Here they go with the unnecessary propaganda again. The airlines don't have contact information on the people on the flights? Yeah they do. They don't have police force across the USA that can locate the folks that may have been exposed? Yeah they do. I suppose announcing it over the airwaves is marginally effective, but, I would think there would be a far more EFFECTIVE Homeland Security mechanism for an exposure such as this. Is there? NO !

The year was 1993. I was an Registered Nurse at the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey. I was the 'Union Rep' to the unit I-Blue. I reported on to work and began to receive 'report' from an off going RN. We had received a female patient, age 45 years old. Nice lady. The diagnosis was new to me, but, that was never unusual at UMDNJ. We received all kinds of disease issues on this cutting edge cardiac telemetry/step-down/medical/surgical floor. We received the first two cases of that Mouse Virus in New Jersey, it was a retrovirus. The virus was so virulent it was killing people in NYC and this was a man with a high rate tachycardia due to the virus and fever. We got him through it. His daughter was on Peds and she survived it as well. He stated, there was a mouse in the apartment the day before and it must have been in the kitchen.

But, that day in 1993, the patient was a woman and the diagnosis was Multi-Drug Resistant TB. I looked at the reporting nurse and said, what? MTB he said. Multi-Drug Resistance TB. She was in a room without negative pressure and the diagnosis alone required a 'stand' by the floor's Union Rep. Evidently, the admitting physicians saw no reason to place her in an Anti-Room where there were several layers of isolation. I didn't waste time and called the Vice President of Nursing and simply stated, we had a serious TB case and there was insufficient mechanism to protect the staff. She personally got up from her desk as this was the hospital's first extremely resistant TB case, and went to Unit H-Yellow taking one of their 'micro' filtration machines. It was a large square unit that provided a filtration of viruses as well as a negative pressure. She gowned and gloved and put it in the room herself and started the filtrations. It was her responsiblity to protect the staff and it was my place to make sure it happened. That's all.

This bacteria is well known to the medical profession. It is a serious form of TB, very difficult to treat but it is somewhat treatable if the patient takes all their medications, but, in some instances the medicines are as bad as the bacteria if there are co-morbid issues. I remember assessing this woman's lungs. There were irreversible cavities in her lungs because of the bacteria. She sounded cavernous when she breathed.

Yep.

1993. This bacteria is NOT that unknown to the USA. Rare? Depends the city you live. It was not that rare in Newark after we discovered the first case. Oh, well, that is the Bush World of the Culture of Fear.

I guess Bush is trying to prove he knows more about 'health threats' to the American people than those revealed in "Sicko." Ah, but, Georgie, what do you care?

good night.

Monday, May 28, 2007

1000

You got it "W"rong Anderson. I don't support the troops in the way you state it. I support the fact the troops need to be protected from their generals and Commander and Chief, but, I do not at all support their missions.

1010

PTSD - Well, you know Anderson that is just no problem at all. Bush's cronies produce all kinds of pharmceuticals and the only real hurdle is getting an appointment with the VA. So, all and all these soldiers are mostly given up from having a real life post Iraq. Right? I mean supporting the troops and all the way you do. Right? These folks are so 'lost' to the system they won't ever have a life. They know it too. "The soldiers that ask get the best help available." You. Are. A. Liar. You. Had. A. Segment months ago about a soldier that killed himself as noted by his mother because he was turned away from help. But. Hey. So long as you say it as stated by 'the authorities' of the USA somewhere in the 'black hole' of the Bush Administration it must be fact, right, Anderson. I mean you believe in stenography, right? Oh, wait, you call it 'emoting journalism.' That tried and true 'technique' noted in a lab before unleashing it on the public.

1016

Do you know Anderson that most raped women suffer for the rest of their lives from PTSD. Do you know those women suffer while most of the time their rapists walk. Interesting, huh?

Virtual Iraq. It is the 'virtual PTSD' video game we have all longer for, I am sure. I am so tired of this dribble.

1025

Gupta, "This treatment is on a limited basis." He presents himself that is as scarred as the men and women coming back from Iraq. Insulting. I realize he volunteered his services as a surgeon on occassion but that isn't combat. That isn't facing your own death relentlessly. CNN is all about phoney bonding STILL.

I want to see that 'phoney' commercail from "I rock" Prudential. You know the one that repeatedly states, "I rock" as if it were Iraq. Somehow that is supposed to get those that listen to it or watch to 'accept' Iraq as an accepted aspect of life similar to 'The Rock - Prudential.' Give me a break.

And they have the nerve to call it journalism. It's propaganda.

enough.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

1000

When will Anderson Cooper ever STOP trying to terrorize the USA? Never probably. You know Andy, you are pathetic when you actually try to justify any concern over a year old FBI investigation that ended with people 'defused' from every attempting to 'pull off' any kind of trick on people.

Not even mentioned in the title of the hour.

Rudy Giuliani Under Fire Over Donations to Planned Parenthood; God and Politics; Los Angeles Firefighters Battle Massive Blaze

On now to the arrest today of five men the government believes were plotting terror at a U.S. military base and a sixth who allegedly supplied the weapons. The suspects include a convenience store clerk, a taxi driver, and three roofers. The question now, did they also add up to a homegrown Muslim terror cell? More on the story from CNN's Deborah Feyerick.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Five suspects in these vans allegedly plotted to kill at least 100 soldiers at Fort Dix Army Base in New Jersey, using AK-47s and other assault rifles.

JODY WEIS, FBI: Today, we dodged a bullet. In fact, when you look at the type of weapons that this group was trying to purchase, we may have dodged a lot of bullets. We had a group that was forming a platoon to take on an army.

FEYERICK: Investigators discovered the plot more than a year ago, when a store clerk told them he had been asked to copy a video showing 10 men shooting assault weapons, militia-style, and calling for jihad. A paid FBI informant infiltrated the group, convincing them he could get his hands on AK-47s and M-16 semiautomatic weapons. The weapons were delivered last night. And FBI agents and New Jersey State Police followed, sweeping in to take out the alleged terror cell.

CHRISTOPHER CHRISTIE, U.S. ATTORNEY: All that, combined with their increased training sessions, the intensity of those, and ultimately their desire to get automatic weapons to complete their plan, told us it was now time to take this down and not let it go any further.

FEYERICK: The five defendants, one of them allegedly a sniper from Kosovo, travelled to the Pennsylvania mountains for training. Randy Swiden (ph) says he saw them on the firing range.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And they just set up some targets in a 50- yard range and started firing. But they had brought jugs and other, like, paper plates as targets, instead of regular aiming targets.

FEYERICK: The criminal complaint says that, on that training trip, they talked about bombs, C-4 explosives, and striking U.S. warships docked in Philadelphia. They watched videos of terror training and attacks on the U.S. military.

CHRISTIE: They watched the blowing off of the arm of a United States Marine, and the room burst out into laughter.

FEYERICK: One of the defendants allegedly provided a map of Fort Dix. Authorities say his family owns this pizzeria near the base, and that he used to deliver pizzas there and knew the base like the palm of his hand.

JOSEPH HOFFLINGER, PIZZA CHEF: No, he seemed like a regular, regular person. You know, he would come in. Hi. How you doing? What's up? You know...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Would he hang around?

HOFFLINGER: Yes, he would stay for, like -- he would sit there and have lunch, talk to his father, and then he would go.

FEYERICK: Authorities say he suggested causing a power outage on the base to make the attack easier, saying he would do it in the name of Allah. Three of the defendants are brothers, ethnic Albanians in their 20s, in the U.S. illegally, who allegedly collected weapons for the attack. Another suspect, their brother-in-law, allegedly scouted out Fort Dix and other Army bases for attack. They are charged with conspiring to kill U.S. military personnel, a charge that carries a maximum life sentence. A sixth man was charged with supplying weapons.

WEIS: Today's threats come from smaller, more loosely defined individuals and cells.

FEYERICK: ... members of the defendants were visibly shaken in court, one woman sobbing. The men were taken to a detention facility, pending a hearing Friday.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COOPER: Deborah, is there any evidence of an al Qaeda connection? And was it just Army bases that they wanted to target, allegedly?

FEYERICK: There's no clear evidence that this was sanctioned by al Qaeda, but it was definitely inspired by al Qaeda.

Ya think maybe even mentioning this idiocy is embarrassing? Ever think people are so estranged from the 'idea' that the FBI and CIA don't do their jobs after 911, that they actually feel their country is somewhat more safe. The reason 911 happened was because Cheney/Bush looked the other way. That's why. It had absolutely nothing to do with failed intelligence about ANYTHING. "Bin Laden Determined to Strike Within the USA." Amazing. Feyrick should remember those words. They mean something to people who see through the incompetency and agenda of Bush and Cheney.And still today this news network and news team still PUMPS UP the propaganda.

A year, Cooper. An entire year and more the FBI was 'on to this mess.' Get over it, you've become a manipulative anchor with absolutely NO NEWS that matters. Not to me.

According to the confidential informant, he was shown videos on one of the man's computers. They included videos of bin Laden, of al Qaeda, of training, mujahedeen, also of two of the 9/11 hijackers, a last will and testament that appeared on the computer when it was played to the confidential informant.

We are told also, according to the criminal complaint, that they were looking at a lot of other Army bases in this area, including Dover Air Force base. And one thing they had in mind was possibly attacking the Army-Navy football game back in early December -- one of the men quoted as saying that they missed that opportunity. So, they definitely had their sights on these people. And, even though this was not sanctioned by al Qaeda, one of the men is quoted saying that they wanted a fatwa. They were waiting the fatwa. Who that was supposed to come from, unclear. U.S. attorney wouldn't say, but, in fact, these are the kind of groups that authorities are most concerned about, because they are independent, they are organized, but they don't talk to anyone but themselves -- Anderson.

COOPER: Deborah, thanks very much. Fort Dix is a massive and vital military base. Here's the "Raw Data" on it.It covers 50 square miles of land in New Jersey. It is the largest military mobilization site in the U.S. Since September 11, the base has mobilized and demobilized more than 90,000 soldiers. Fort Dix celebrates its 90th anniversary this summer.

The Republicans haven't got a respectable candidate. Just that simple. Everyone that is running has a tainted and/or corrupted background. They either were moderate at one time and can't be alienated away from that reality and/or the current elected members are tainted with corruption they participated in over the past seven years in supporting a bi-partisan effort to over throw the USA Constitution. I mean Brownback openly doesn't see a darn thing "W"rong with outing a CIA agent. He regrets Louis Libby was prosecuted. Man, what kind of arrogance is that. I'll tell you what kind. 'ABOVE THE LAW' arrogance. Everything the Republicans have done over the past seven years is to place themselves and their cronies ABOVE THE LAW.

Afraid of al Qaeda? Me? Not exactly.

You know Cooper why don't you talk about Wolfowitz and how the moron in the Oval Office is taking the prestige and priviledge of the USA at the World Bank away from a proud heritage? Why don't you talk about that? In not asking Wolfowitz to resign because of his KNOWN "W"rong-doing, the USA is losing it's ability to assign The World Bank president. You don't care about that, do you? NOOoooo, that's too hot a potatoe for you to handle. Might offend the Neocons. The President and then Beck won't be able to play with Fido on the White House Lawn.

And that's where "Raw Politics" begin with Tom Foreman.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You wonder what's making you feel so uncomfortable about politics these days. Well, you're being polled. And the White House is squirming over the raw numbers that top "Raw Politics" tonight. The Democrats passed a war funding measure with a deadline for a troop pullout. The president swatted it down, and voters are hitting back. The latest CNN poll finds, 54 percent think his veto was wrong. The White House says deadlines are still a bad idea.

TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: It is certainly a war (Iraq) in which our walking away is not going to turn Osama bin Laden into a flower child.

FOREMAN: Democrats are not being flowery about it. Just as we predicted here in "Raw Politics," they are now jumping all over those soaring gas prices, saying they must be brought under control.

Are you people for real? You are all trying to STILL sell the fact that Iraq has ANYTHING to do with Osama bin Laden? Huh? This isn't even politics, this is fraud. Anyone read the 911 Commission report? The one that laid NO BLAME on anyone because otherwise Bush won't allow it. Remember that one? Osama bin Laden was last known to be alive at Tora Bora. AFGHANISTAN. Remember Afghanistan, or since Bush has been kicked out of Afghanistan the Neocons in the White House simply removed it from the map?

Let's see. Afghanistan.

Airstrike kills 21 civilians in Afghanistan (click here)
Karzai has repeatedly urged more caution to prevent such casualties

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan // Airstrikes called in by U.S. Special Forces soldiers fighting with insurgents in southern Afghanistan killed at least 21 civilians, officials said today. One coalition soldier was also killed.

Helmand provincial Gov. Assadullah Wafa said Taliban fighters sought shelter in villagers' homes during the fighting in the Sangin district Tuesday evening, and that subsequent airstrikes killed 21 civilians, including several women and children.

The darnest thing about this is...the Taliban don't have aircraft and YET they are coming up smelling like roses because NATO does. I'll be darn.

ERICA HILL, HEADLINE NEWS ANCHOR: Anderson, Al Jazeera has broadcast video of what it says is a suicide bombing in Algeria last month that killed at least 24 people and wound more than 200 others. The video was reported created in North Africa....

...On Wall Street, the Dow's record run is over after closing at the top of territory in the last 24 of the last 27 sessions. The blue chips lost three today. The S&P fell one. The NASDAQ closed up slightly.

That is very interesting indeed. Terrorism and Wall Street. Very interesting. Odd it they should both be so important to 'Headline News.'

Rowlands should talk more about drought conditions in California, the causes of drought and Human Induced Global Warming. 'Tinderbox' conditions. Tinderbox, that sounds Texan to me, doesn't to you, Andy?

DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: ...But also they had bought AK-47s, the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and M-16s to use in this attack...

Let's see. People in this country illegally and because of very generous gun laws in the USA are able to arm with assault weapons. Does Feyerick focus on THAT reality. No, she simply sensationalizes all the potential blood shed they try to paint on the screen at CNN. I suppose according to Bush we are all supposed to go out and arm ourselves with assault weapons now. Right? Right. I don't think so.

...What they didn't know is they were buying them from an undercover -- sorry, an FBI informant, I should say. And the delivery of those weapons happened last night. That's when the FBI and members of the New Jersey State Police swept in, raided one of the homes where the meeting was alleged to have taken place. They also targeted other locations to round up the suspects....

This is no different than the 'sting' operation in Miami except that there didn't seem to be the 'titilation' of money this time. You know the carrot in front of the donkey so to speak. I might actually be concerned if they obtained assault weapons from someone else. Did Feyerick go there with this mess? No. She focused on the fact that terrorists were interested in obtaining deadly weapons to kill ? the military ?. I see.

3 in Dix Plot From Pro - U.S. Balkans Area (click here)

DEBAR, Macedonia (AP) -- Three Muslim brothers who allegedly helped plot to kill soldiers at a U.S. Army base have roots in one of Europe's most pro-American corners -- a region that remains grateful to the United States for ending the Kosovo war.
Dritan Duka, 28, Shain Duka, 26, and Eljvir Duka, 23, who were arrested in New Jersey this week in what U.S. authorities said was a bungled scheme to blow up and gun down soldiers at Fort Dix, were born in Debar, a remote town on Macedonia's rugged border with Serbia's Kosovo province.
Relatives in the ethnic Albanian-populated town of 15,000 said they had not seen the brothers in more than two decades, but expressed disbelief Wednesday that the three would attack the United States.
''We all have been supporters of America. We were always thankful to America for its support during the wars in Kosovo and Macedonia,'' a cousin, Elez Duka, 29, told The Associated Press.
''These are simple, ordinary people and they've got nothing to do with terrorism. I expect their release and I expect an apology,'' he said, waving his hands. ''I see injustice. These are ridiculous charges.''

Those are the very same words spoken by relatives of the men arrested in the Miami sting. Same. Words. The story isn't about the sting, Mueller's FBI, or any 'terrorist' aspect. It's about the people, estranged from their values and why they felt so much hate they felt it was okay to act on it.

It would be nice if you all GOT YOUR FACTS straight when you report these issues.

These are the facts. People made a DVD while possessing assault rifles. There were at least three that were illegals. Then in order to finally close in on them the FBI sold them more assault rifles because their agent could not seem to locate the ones in the video. I am assuming. Basically, the six men were becoming annoying to the FBI so they set them up for an arrest.

Terrorist plot to attack US Army post foiled (click here)

Washington - Thanks to an alert clerk at a shop in New Jersey, six terrorists were arrested in a plot to attack a US Army post that the FBI says was foiled when the clerk turned over a DVD to authorities showing the six men practicing with assault rifles.
The store clerk in Mount Laurel, New Jersey has not been identified. An FBI spokesperson called the store clerk an "unsung hero" for alerting authorities.
In January, 2006, one of the suspected terrorists brought the video to the shop for copying which showed the six men chanting "God is Great" and calling for Jihad in Arabic and shooting assault rifles. The clerk notified authorities who began infiltrating the group and documenting their plans. The FBI says the documentation of a terrorist group on U.S. soil was one of the most thorough in recent history.
Following a 17-month investigation, the six men were arrested Monday night as they prepared to buy assault weapons from a man working with the FBI....

...During the months leading up to Monday's arrest, the alleged plotters are recorded several times weighing the merits of additional weapons purchases. Our cooperating witness claimed to have access to arms and provided the alleged plotters a list of weapons for sale. Meanwhile, he funneled information to the FBI and the Joint Terrorism Task Force about the alleged plotters' plans as they developed....

You haven't and it shows ! Definitively it shows ! Ah, on to the feed issue.

See, this is interesting stuff. Not CHICKEN FEED you might say:

Putin Cites Third Reich in Veiled Criticism of U.S. (click here)

MOSCOW, May 9 — President Vladimir V. Putin obliquely compared the foreign policy of the United States to the Third Reich in a speech on Wednesday commemorating the 62nd anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany, apparently in an escalation of anti-American talk within the Russian government.
The comments were the latest in a series of sharply worded Russian criticisms of the foreign policy of the United States — on Iraq, missile defense,
NATO expansion and, more broadly, United States unilateralism in foreign affairs.
Many Russians say the sharper edge reflects a frustration that Russia’s views, in particular opposition to NATO expansion, have been ignored in the West. Outside of Russia, however, many detected in the new tone a return to cold-war-style antagonism, emboldened by petroleum wealth.

Yeah. Ever keep up with Novosti? I think most folks should. Ever talk about here relations with the USA is going with countries such as Russia? I think that is very noteworthy, actually.


Putin congratulates Russians on 62nd VE Day anniversary (click here)
12:04
09/ 05/ 2007

MOSCOW, May 9 (RIA Novosti) - President Vladimir Putin has congratulated the people of Russia on the 62nd anniversary of victory against Nazi Germany in a speech at a military parade in Moscow.
"We bow our heads to the courage and fortitude of all those who crushed the aggressor and stopped Nazism," he said.
He said Victory Day is the dearest holiday not only for the Russian citizens but also for the people of the former Soviet Union, the countries of Europe and the entire planet.
Putin cautioned against any attempts to obliterate the memory of those who died in the Great Patriotic War and to desecrate monuments to war heroes.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday accused the European Union and NATO of conniving with countries that disrespect the memory of Soviet soldiers and attempt to rewrite history, in an obvious reference to a dispute over Estonia's relocation of a Soviet-era war memorial from central Tallinn late in April.
The controversial relocation sparked protests among members of Estonia's Russian community in Tallinn, where one Russian national was killed and more than a hundred injured in clashes with police.
The move also angered officials in Moscow, who described it as an act of blasphemy.

That is not necessarily the MOST interesting story though, these are:

MOST POPULAR ARTICLES
War on war memories: how to stop it?

Russia to deploy fixed-site Topol-M ICBMs by 2010 -SMF cmdr.

Newest submarine delivered to U.S. Navy

Russia to upgrade Topol-M ICBMs to counter defense

Russia regrets NATO, EU connivance at attempts to rewrite history

I especially was interested in the last article:


Russia regrets NATO, EU connivance at attempts to rewrite history
12:08
07/ 05/ 2007
MOSCOW, May 7 (RIA Novosti) - Russia rejects some countries' attempts to rewrite history, Russia's foreign minister said Monday.
Addressing a wreath-laying ceremony for diplomats who perished in WWII, Sergei Lavrov said that the memory of the Victory was sacred, and that all officials at the Russian Foreign Ministry were responsible for thwarting attempts to scoff at history.
"Unfortunately, some organizations, such as NATO and the EU are conniving at such attempts [to rewrite history]," Lavrov said.
Last week, Russia was angered by the reaction of some EU countries, as well as the U.S., in an escalating dispute with Estonia over the removal of a Soviet-era war memorial from central Tallinn late in April. The relocation of the monument caused protests in Tallinn, mostly by ethnic Russians, which left one Russian dead and hundreds under arrest. Moscow said the protests were "a natural reaction" and accused Estonian police of human rights violations.
Russia's ambassador to the OSCE said grave human rights violations in Estonia resulted from the EU and NATO's indifference and tacit consent.
Estonia also received backing from the United States, which said it was the Baltic state's internal affair and called for dialogue.

Why would that be interesting one might ask?

Because it is personal. It hits home to nearly every Russian that reads it. A statue. A simple expression of Russian presence was relocated and caused 'civil disobedience' and a disturbance that caused a death.

This news team can't find it's way out of a paperbag to be relevant beyond being a political propaganda rag. Pathetic, Anderson. The SHOW is pathetic !

enough

Thursday, May 03, 2007

No safe way for U.S. to leave Iraq, experts warn

POSTED: 5:05 a.m. EDT, May 3, 2007

Story Highlights• Experts paint bleak picture of Iraq if U.S. troops fully withdraw• Among potential scenarios: al Qaeda terror hub and larger regional conflict• CNN analyst: "Saudi Arabia will not allow increasing Iranian dominance" • U.S. general says early pullout would cause "huge vacuum"
Adjust font size:

(CNN) -- Pulling U.S. forces from Iraq could trigger catastrophe, CNN analysts and other observers warn, affecting not just Iraq but its neighbors in the Middle East, with far-reaching global implications.
Sectarian violence could erupt on a scale never seen before in Iraq if coalition troops leave before Iraq's security forces are ready. Supporters of al Qaeda could develop an international hub of terror from which to threaten the West. And the likely civil war could draw countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran into a broader conflict.

President Bush vetoed a war spending bill Tuesday precisely because the Democrat-led Congress required the first U.S. combat troops to be withdrawn by October 1 with a goal of a complete pullout six months later.

Bush said such a deadline would be irresponsible and both sides are now working on new proposals -- which may have no pullout dates.

A rapid withdrawal of all U.S. troops would hurt America's image and hand al Qaeda and other terror groups a propaganda victory that the United States is only a "paper tiger," CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen said. (Send us your reaction)

"It would also play into their strategy, which is to create a mini-state somewhere in the Middle East where they can reorganize along the lines of what they did in Afghanistan in the late '90s," Bergen told CNN.com.
It was in Afghanistan where Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda allied with the Taliban, and were allowed to run terror bases and plan the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States.

Bergen says it is imperative that the United States not let that happen in Iraq.

"What we must prevent is central/western Iraq [from] becoming a Sunni militant state that threatens our interests directly as an international terror hub," he said.

Don Shepperd, a retired Air Force major-general and military analyst for CNN, agreed that Sunni Muslim fighters who support al Qaeda would seek an enclave inside a lawless Iraq likely riven along sectarian lines into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish regions.

There would be "increasing attempts by terrorists to establish a training sanctuary in Iraq," Shepperd said.
That's one of the reasons why a fast withdrawal will not happen, whatever the politicians say, the analysts predict. (Watch why a radical Shiite cleric wants U.S. troops out )

"Everyone wants the troops home -- the Iraqis, the U.S., the world -- but no one wants a precipitous withdrawal that produces a civil war, a bloodbath, nor a wider war in an unstable Mideast," Shepperd said, adding that the image of the United States was important too.

"And we do not want a U.S that is perceived as having been badly defeated in the global war on terror or as an unreliable future ally or coalition partner."

Shepperd, a veteran fighter pilot of the Vietnam War, has served as a CNN analyst of the Iraq war since it began. Bergen was one of the first Western journalists to ever meet with bin Laden, and is considered a leading authority on al Qaeda.

Shepperd: Oil sector could suffer

Shepperd said Iraq's neighbors would be drawn into the all-out civil war likely if U.S. forces left too quickly. Iran could move in to further strengthen its influence in southern Iraq; Turkey likely would move against the Kurds in the north; and Saudi Arabia would be inclined to take action to protect Sunnis in western Iraq, he said.

The oil sector could also get hit hard, with Iran potentially mining the Persian Gulf and attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz, putting a stranglehold on oil flow, Shepperd says.

"Oil prices would skyrocket," he said -- perhaps soaring from current prices of about $60 a barrel to more than $100 a barrel, with consequent rises at the gas pump.

And that could bring further trouble, Shepperd added. "Saudi Arabia will not allow increasing Iranian dominance to endanger its regime and oil economy."

On top of that, Iran could speed up its nuclear ambitions, causing a "daunting and depressing scenario" of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt and Turkey trying to get a nuclear bomb, Shepperd says.

Observers such as Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, say a wider Mideast conflict could be avoided.

But Alterman also fears that an Iraq left without U.S. support could turn into a center for international terrorism and a proxy battlefield for regional powers like Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

"All the surrounding countries would think their interests are much better maintained not by directly sending troops but by continuing to send money and weapons to the people fighting that war," he said.
"In my judgment, it would take decades for such an insurgency to quiet down."

There are 120,000 Iraq soldiers now classified as trained by the U.S. military in Iraq, along with 135,000 police force members. But the head of the Iraqi ground forces, Gen. Ali Ghiran-Majeed, recently told CNN that some of his soldiers don't even get paid, and that on any given day one quarter of the force is on vacation.

For U.S. troops on the ground, the idea of withdrawal is vexing.

"I think it would cause a huge vacuum that the enemies of Iraq -- enemies of the government -- would take advantage of," said U.S. Brig. Gen. Dana Pittard, the commander of the Iraq Assistance Group.
Staff Sgt. Matthew St. Pierre is one U.S. soldier who's come to the conclusion the United States cannot win the war, but he says he also fears the consequences of withdrawal.

"We are the buffer right now and when we pull out, the people who support us are going to feel the wrath, and the people who are against us ... they're going to ultimately win. And I think that's unfortunate," he said.
That is a prognosis that concerns many, though Shepperd sees a viable solution for Iraq, albeit one with a U.S. presence there for years to come.

"Done properly we should be in Iraq for years, not in a combat [role], but an embedded advisory role," he said.

CNN Correspondent Hugh Riminton in Baghdad and CNN.com Producer Wayne Drash in Atlanta contributed to this story.
No safe way for U.S. to leave Iraq, experts warn

POSTED: 5:05 a.m. EDT, May 3, 2007
var clickExpire = "-1";

Story Highlights• Experts paint bleak picture of Iraq if U.S. troops fully withdraw• Among potential scenarios: al Qaeda terror hub and larger regional conflict• CNN analyst: "Saudi Arabia will not allow increasing Iranian dominance" • U.S. general says early pullout would cause "huge vacuum"
Adjust font size:

(CNN) -- Pulling U.S. forces from Iraq could trigger catastrophe, CNN analysts and other observers warn, affecting not just Iraq but its neighbors in the Middle East, with far-reaching global implications.
Sectarian violence could erupt on a scale never seen before in Iraq if coalition troops leave before Iraq's security forces are ready. Supporters of al Qaeda could develop an international hub of terror from which to threaten the West. And the likely civil war could draw countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran into a broader conflict.

President Bush vetoed a war spending bill Tuesday precisely because the Democrat-led Congress required the first U.S. combat troops to be withdrawn by October 1 with a goal of a complete pullout six months later.

Bush said such a deadline would be irresponsible and both sides are now working on new proposals -- which may have no pullout dates.

A rapid withdrawal of all U.S. troops would hurt America's image and hand al Qaeda and other terror groups a propaganda victory that the United States is only a "paper tiger," CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen said. (Send us your reaction)

"It would also play into their strategy, which is to create a mini-state somewhere in the Middle East where they can reorganize along the lines of what they did in Afghanistan in the late '90s," Bergen told CNN.com.
It was in Afghanistan where Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda allied with the Taliban, and were allowed to run terror bases and plan the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States.

Bergen says it is imperative that the United States not let that happen in Iraq.

"What we must prevent is central/western Iraq [from] becoming a Sunni militant state that threatens our interests directly as an international terror hub," he said.

Don Shepperd, a retired Air Force major-general and military analyst for CNN, agreed that Sunni Muslim fighters who support al Qaeda would seek an enclave inside a lawless Iraq likely riven along sectarian lines into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish regions.

There would be "increasing attempts by terrorists to establish a training sanctuary in Iraq," Shepperd said.
That's one of the reasons why a fast withdrawal will not happen, whatever the politicians say, the analysts predict. (Watch why a radical Shiite cleric wants U.S. troops out )

"Everyone wants the troops home -- the Iraqis, the U.S., the world -- but no one wants a precipitous withdrawal that produces a civil war, a bloodbath, nor a wider war in an unstable Mideast," Shepperd said, adding that the image of the United States was important too.

"And we do not want a U.S that is perceived as having been badly defeated in the global war on terror or as an unreliable future ally or coalition partner."

Shepperd, a veteran fighter pilot of the Vietnam War, has served as a CNN analyst of the Iraq war since it began. Bergen was one of the first Western journalists to ever meet with bin Laden, and is considered a leading authority on al Qaeda.

Shepperd: Oil sector could suffer

Shepperd said Iraq's neighbors would be drawn into the all-out civil war likely if U.S. forces left too quickly. Iran could move in to further strengthen its influence in southern Iraq; Turkey likely would move against the Kurds in the north; and Saudi Arabia would be inclined to take action to protect Sunnis in western Iraq, he said.

The oil sector could also get hit hard, with Iran potentially mining the Persian Gulf and attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz, putting a stranglehold on oil flow, Shepperd says.

"Oil prices would skyrocket," he said -- perhaps soaring from current prices of about $60 a barrel to more than $100 a barrel, with consequent rises at the gas pump.

And that could bring further trouble, Shepperd added. "Saudi Arabia will not allow increasing Iranian dominance to endanger its regime and oil economy."

On top of that, Iran could speed up its nuclear ambitions, causing a "daunting and depressing scenario" of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt and Turkey trying to get a nuclear bomb, Shepperd says.

Observers such as Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, say a wider Mideast conflict could be avoided.

But Alterman also fears that an Iraq left without U.S. support could turn into a center for international terrorism and a proxy battlefield for regional powers like Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

"All the surrounding countries would think their interests are much better maintained not by directly sending troops but by continuing to send money and weapons to the people fighting that war," he said.
"In my judgment, it would take decades for such an insurgency to quiet down."

There are 120,000 Iraq soldiers now classified as trained by the U.S. military in Iraq, along with 135,000 police force members. But the head of the Iraqi ground forces, Gen. Ali Ghiran-Majeed, recently told CNN that some of his soldiers don't even get paid, and that on any given day one quarter of the force is on vacation.

For U.S. troops on the ground, the idea of withdrawal is vexing.

"I think it would cause a huge vacuum that the enemies of Iraq -- enemies of the government -- would take advantage of," said U.S. Brig. Gen. Dana Pittard, the commander of the Iraq Assistance Group.

Staff Sgt. Matthew St. Pierre is one U.S. soldier who's come to the conclusion the United States cannot win the war, but he says he also fears the consequences of withdrawal.

"We are the buffer right now and when we pull out, the people who support us are going to feel the wrath, and the people who are against us ... they're going to ultimately win. And I think that's unfortunate," he said.
That is a prognosis that concerns many, though Shepperd sees a viable solution for Iraq, albeit one with a U.S. presence there for years to come.

"Done properly we should be in Iraq for years, not in a combat [role], but an embedded advisory role," he said.

CNN Correspondent Hugh Riminton in Baghdad and CNN.com Producer Wayne Drash in Atlanta contributed to this story.